St. Patrick’s Day Accounting: Patriots’ Bottom Line

Patriots 2025 Offseason State of the Union

As the bluster of winter begins to calm down in New England, and long-awaited signs of life return to Patriot Place in the early spring of 2025, it is time to take stock of how the local NFL franchise's fortunes appear in the weeks between the beginning of the free agency and the draft.  Much has changed and, sadly, much remains of the previous five seasons of crop failure and fan famine.  Care must be taken in sowing and nurturing this season's planting if New Englanders are to feast again on the kind of bounty we once grew fat on.  Will a new plowing regimen and new cultivars return the Foxboro soil to fecundity, or has climate change finally rendered the Gillette turf barren?

Ownership and Leadership Challenges

The ownership of the franchise remains the same as it was in the glory days.  That should be a good thing for fans, but when we replay the statements and actions of the Krafts since the last championship season, one can't help wondering whether their view of the reality of the situation is clear enough now that they can make the kind of changes that the football team needs to return to the top echelon of the League.  Lighthouses and gigantic video screens won't solve the problems that have led to back-to-back 4-win seasons that place the Patriots at or near the bottom of the NFL world, and have created a pall over the organization that has apparently made it a team that top players are not interested in joining.  What have the Krafts done to rectify this?

Coaching Changes and Front Office Decisions

They watched their six-time championship Head Coach and de facto GM degrade the roster and fail to develop new assistants over the preceding decade, and decided that his time had come.  Their 2024 plan was to elevate their former player, recent assistant coach, and fellow pilgrim Jerod Mayo to the position of Head Coach, in spite of his lack of experience and obvious lack of a structured plan.  The result was predictable, and exacerbated the decline of the team on the field, although the coach himself was only partially to blame.

The player personnel staff that had advised and contributed to the previous regime's draft failures remained in place after the Greatest Head Coach of All Time, and the 2024 results were again predictable.

So the owners have made the decision to go for a more complete restructuring of the coaching staff with more experienced and respected Head Coach Mike Vrabel replacing the unprepared Mayo.  Vrabel has brought in several assistants that have more experience and with whom he is more familiar than poor Mayo was able to assemble.  He signed up for the job with the understanding that he would have more say over the composition of the player roster than his predecessor had, and he brought his choice of personnel assistant as well.

But the previous personnel staff of Eliot Wolf and Matt Groh have been retained by the Krafts, probably for some kind of continuity.  It is not clear how much power they have over player choice, but their very presence lends a foul air to the room.  The first roster additions seem to be much more the choice of Head Coach Vrabel than those of the old staff.  We hope that will continue, and that perhaps Wolf and Groh will be sent packing after the draft is complete.

Current Roster Assessment

As the opening days of the hectic free agency period have passed and more attention is shifted to new month's NFL Draft, what does the roster look like to Patriots fans?  Let's break it down by position group:

Offense

Quarterback

Drake Maye, Josh Dobbs, Joe Milton III

This looks like a pretty good group, with Maye the apparent "franchise QB" we all want, and the experienced Dobbs and the exciting Milton behind him.  Maye was largely ineffective in his rookie year, primarily owing to the lack of talent around him, but he did show real promise.

Running Back 

Rhamondre Stevenson, Antonio Gibson, Terrell Jennings

It's not a bad group, but it doesn't raise our temperatures very much, either.  Stevenson took a step back in 2024, fumbling 7 times and not looking as explosive as he had in previous seasons.  Gibson was healthy again, and looked like the better RB overall,  Jennings is an unknown.  This is a group that will certainly be augmented in the draft and free agency.

Wide Receiver

Kayshon Boutte, DeMario Douglas, Kendrick Bourne, Mack Hollins, Ja'Lynn Polk, Javon Baker, JaQuae Jackson, John Jiles

After utterly whiffing on early draft picks at WR for years, the Patriots are a team that really has no player that defenses have to plan for.  Not one.  In fact, there really is no player here that must be kept on the roster.  This year's draft class is ...not great.  Free agency has not been kind to the Pats, and trading for someone's top WR has been impossible.  Many fans are angry at the team for once again not spending enough to get one of the best free agents, but reporting is that they have tried and been rebuffed.  None of the free agents still available would likely solve the team's problem at the position, anyway.  We can hope for an unexpected trade, but in the end we will most likely have to hope for luck in the draft or wait another year.

Tight End

Hunter Henry, Austin Hooper, Jaheim Bell, Jack Westover

The top two players are veterans who produce, but are not prime weapons.  Bell, drafted last year, is still a mystery.  Westover is depth.  This is not a position of primary need for the Patriots, but one which still might be addressed in what looks to be a decent draft class.

Offensive Tackle

Vederian Lowe, Morgan Moses, Demontrey Jacobs, Caedan Wallace, Caleb Jones

Wow, what a group.  Morgan Moses is old, but gives them a steady professional at Right Tackle.  Is there a Left Tackle among the others?  I don't see one.  Not worthy of starting, anyway.  This is an area of enormous importance for the Patriots, but one that is very, very hard to fill with a quality player.  Free agency and Left Tackle are not phrases that normally go together, and this year has been no exception.  What remains on the market is not an upgrade from what they have, unless Tyron Smith has one more season in his broken down old carcass.  The draft has a couple of "maybe" candidates, but the class is weak at the top, and the team needs a starter right now, not three years form now.  A trade for some other team's backup or swing Tackle is possible, but our only other hope is that OL Coach Doug Marrone can get something we have not seen out of the likes of Lowe or Jacobs.

Guard

Layden Robinson, Sidy Sow, Cole Strange, Michael Onwenu, Wes Schweitzer, Tyrese Robinson, Lecitus Smith

Onwenu is established at Right Guard.  Left Guard is up in the air, but there are players who can fill the position already on the roster.  Schweitzer is a veteran utility lineman who has had injuries, but plays everywhere.  This position can be augmented and possibly upgraded in the draft and free agency right up until the beginning of the regular season.

Center

Ben Brown, Jake Andrews, Cole Strange(?)

The bell tolled for old reliable David Andrews, and Vrabel has clearly purged some of the team's former captains from the roster to bring in a mentality distinct from the previous team's.  This leaves a big question mark at a very important position.  Jake Andrews was drafted as David's potential successor, but has been injured to begin his career, so we really don't know what they have in him.  Brown is a veteran who struggled with the Pats last season.  Strange is an undersized and underachieving Guard who was inserted into the position late last season and seemed to hold his own.  Schweitzer has also played Center.  But this is a very crucial position on the offensive line, and getting a veteran replacement seems like a smart idea, so watch for free agents or possibly a trade before training camp begins in July.

Defense

This unit has benefited much from free agency under the Vrabel regime, so it looks to be the strength of the entire team.  So much so, that if the season started next week, they could field a decent defense.  Is there room for upgrades?  Of course.  And keep watching for free agent additions right up until the beginning of the regular season as well as additions in the draft at Edge, Defensive Tackle, Free Safety, and Linebacker.

Interior Defensive Line

Christian Barmore, Milton Williams, Keion White, Khyiris Tonga, Jeremiah Pharms Jr., Jaquelin Roy, Eric Johnson, Marcus Harris

The addition of Super Bowl standout Milton Williams could make a real difference to this group, but he has only played about 50% of his team's snaps so far, and if Christian Barmore is unable to continue his career due to recurring blood clots, then the position still needs another penetrating Defensive Tackle.  Expect to see at least one taken in the draft.

Edge Defender

Harold Landry III, Anfernee Jennings, K'Lavon Chaisson, Titus Leo, Truman Jones

Landry was a solid addition familiar with the new coaching regime, but he is more of a run-stopper than a pass rusher.  The same can be said of Jennings.  Chaisson is more of a situational pass rusher.  Expect to see at least one Edge rusher taken in the draft.

Linebacker

Ja'Whaun Bentley, Robert Spillane, Jahlani Tavai, Christian Elliss, Curtis Jacobs, Monty Rice, Andrew Parker Jr.

Late-bloomer Spillane was a nice addition to an underwhelming group.  Bentley is an average larger LB whose time may come if they can increase the number by one or two good players.  His status as former captain makes him vulnerable as well, since the other captains have been purged.  Tavai is an average LB whose comments about the fans "knowing their place" may make him persona non grata once the roster is filling out.  Ellis is a smaller journeyman LB who displayed a nose for the ball in limited play last season.  This is a position group that still needs an upgrade in free agency or the draft.

Cornerback

Christian Gonzalez, Carlton Davis III, Marcus Jones, Alex Austin, Marcellas Dial Jr., Isaiah Bolden, Miles Battle, D.J. James

There is excellent quality in starters Gonzalez and Davis.  Jones is a decent Slot Corner, though he was frequently beaten in coverage last season, mostly on the outside.  Depth might be solid if players like Austin and Bolden can expand on the progress they showed in limited play last season.  Dial and Battle are long shots to make a difference, showing some ability but little instinct in limited play last season.  The Patriots could consider the position finished, but there is always room for another good CB.

Safety

Kyle Dugger, Jabrill Peppers, Marcus Epps, Jaylinn Hawkins, Marte Mapu, Dell Pettus, Brenden Schooler, Mark Perry

Epps is coming back from injury, but if healthy could be a big help at the vital Free Safety position which has been unmanned for the last two seasons.  Dugger played through injury last season, and it showed in decreased effectiveness.  Peppers is a solid playmaker whose playing time was limited for extramural activities.  The team depended on Hawkins more than they would have liked to, as he is a mere journeyman.  Mapu remains a mystery, but Special Teamers Pettus and Schooler showed up at times playing Safety.  There is likely to be an addition in the draft in order to shore up the Free Safety position, but this is a pretty stout group.

Specialists

John Parker Romo, Bryce Baringer, Joe Cardona

Place Kicker Romo played 4 games for the Vikings last season, his only NFL experience, and was effective, hitting 11 of 12 Fps and 7 of 8 PATs, but look for the Pats to add a PK in free agency or the draft.  Baringer and Cardona are excellent in their positions.

Outlook for 2025

So what is the bottom line?

There aren't more than a handful of players that are a priority to retain on the entire roster.  This is still a team with major questions at crucial positions.  The offensive line, which has been the bane of the Pats' QBs for the last few years, is still a mud hole, and there is little hope in significant improvement this year.  The Wide Receiver room is still devoid of difference makers, which won't make the QB's job any easier than the O-line will, and there is little hope of significant improvement this year.

The defense still needs to improve both the edge rush and interior pass rush, especially if Christian Barmore is done, but there is substantial hope this can be done through the draft.

So what can we hope for in the 2025 season?  A big improvement in coaching, to begin with.  What transpired last season in positional instruction, game preparation, in-game decision-making, and culture development was simply not professional grade, and this should change from Day 1.  The defense, which at times was one of the worst in the league last season should be significantly improved.

But the offense still looks like it would struggle in the SEC, let alone the NFL.  How this can improve remains to be seen in a weak draft class and free agent population as well.  Josh McDaniels and company will have to earn their money this year.

At least the schedule looks more favorable for the Pats!  But then, preseason strength of schedule never seems to pan out, does it.